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Adversarial Risk Analysis

by David L. Banks
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date: 2015-06-30
Genre: Business & Economics
Pages: 176 pages
ISBN 13: 0877882487
ISBN 10: 9780877882480
Format: PDF, ePUB, MOBI, Audiobooks, Kindle


Synopsis : Adversarial Risk Analysis written by David L. Banks, published by CRC Press which was released on 2015-06-30. Download Adversarial Risk Analysis Books now! Available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against -- Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against

Adversarial Risk Analysis
Language: en
Pages: 224
Authors: David L. Banks, Jesus M. Rios Aliaga, David Rios Insua
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-06-30 - Publisher: CRC Press

Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Contribuciones Al Análisis de Riesgos Adversarios
Language: en
Pages: 142
Authors: Jorge González Ortega
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2018 - Publisher:

Game theory and other group decision-making paradigms, see Gibbons [1992], have been regarded for a long time inadequate in most risk analysis applications. However, thanks to the urge to take into account the strategies of adversaries in contexts such as counter terrorism, economic competition or cybersecurity, a growing interest on these once dismissed methodologies has arisen. Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) [Ros Insua et al., 2009] is an emergent frameworkfor supporting a decision-maker (she) who faces opponents (he/they) in conflict situationsfor which the consequences are random and determined by all interacting agents' actions. ARA provides one-sided prescriptive help to the decision-maker, maximising her expected utility while treating her adversaries' decisions as random variables...
The Psychology of Risk
Language: en
Authors: Glynis M. Breakwell
Categories: Psychology
Type: BOOK - Published: 2014-09-15 - Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Since the first edition of The Psychology of Risk there have been enormous macro-economic and socio-political changes globally - the chaos in the world banking system and the financial crisis and recessions that it presaged; the Arab Spring and the revolutionary shifts in power in the Middle East with rippled consequences around the world; the development of ever-more sophisticated cyber-terrorism that can strike the private individual or the nation state with equal ease. Amidst these changes in the face of hazard, do the psychological models built to explain human reactions to risk still apply? Has the research over the last few years resulted in an improvement in our understanding of how people perceive and act in relation to risk? In this second edition Professor Dame Breakwell uses illustrations and current examples to address these questions and provide a totally up-to-the minute review of what is known about the psychology of risk.
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
Language: en
Pages: 503
Authors: Anca M. Hanea, Gabriela F. Nane, Tim Bedford, Simon French
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2021-02-19 - Publisher: Springer Nature

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Cyber-Risk Informatics
Language: en
Pages: 560
Authors: Mehmet Sahinoglu
Categories: Computers
Type: BOOK - Published: 2016-04-29 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

This book provides a scientific modeling approach for conducting metrics-based quantitative risk assessments of cybersecurity vulnerabilities and threats. This book provides a scientific modeling approach for conducting metrics-based quantitative risk assessments of cybersecurity threats. The author builds from a common understanding based on previous class-tested works to introduce the reader to the current and newly innovative approaches to address the maliciously-by-human-created (rather than by-chance-occurring) vulnerability and threat, and related cost-effective management to mitigate such risk. This book is purely statistical data-oriented (not deterministic) and employs computationally intensive techniques, such as Monte Carlo and Discrete Event Simulation. The enriched JAVA ready-to-go applications and solutions to exercises provided by the author at the book’s specifically preserved website will enable readers to utilize the course related problems. • Enables the reader to use the book's website's applications to implement and see results, and use them making ‘budgetary’ sense • Utilizes a data analytical approach and provides clear entry points for readers of varying skill sets and backgrounds • Developed out of necessity from real in-class experience while teaching advanced undergraduate and graduate courses by the author Cyber-Risk Informatics is a resource for undergraduate students, graduate students, and practitioners in the field of Risk Assessment and Management regarding Security and Reliability Modeling. Mehmet Sahinoglu, a Professor (1990) Emeritus (2000), is the founder of the Informatics Institute (2009) and its SACS-accredited (2010) and NSA-certified (2013) flagship Cybersystems and Information Security (CSIS) graduate program (the first such full degree in-class program in Southeastern USA) at AUM, Auburn University’s metropolitan campus in Montgomery, Alabama. He is a fellow member of the SDPS Society, a senior member of the IEEE, and an elected member of ISI. Sahinoglu is the recipient of Microsoft's Trustworthy Computing Curriculum (TCC) award and the author of Trustworthy Computing (Wiley, 2007).
Improving Risk Analysis
Language: en
Pages: 386
Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2013-02-03 - Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University
Risk Analysis IX
Language: en
Pages: 560
Authors: C. A. Brebbia
Categories: Nature
Type: BOOK - Published: 2014-06-04 - Publisher: WIT Press

Containing papers presented at the 9th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation this book covers a series of important topics of current research interests and many practical applications. It is concerned with all aspects of risk management and hazard mitigation, associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards. The analysis and management of risk and the mitigation of hazards is of fundamental importance to planners and researchers around the world. We live in an increasingly complex society with the potential for disasters on a worldwide scale. Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, fires and others have always affected human societies. Man-made hazards, however, played a comparatively small role a few centuries ago until the risk of catastrophic events started to increase due to the rapid growth of new technologies. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic risks adds to the complexity of the problem. Topics covered include: Risk assessment; Risk management; Hazard prevention, management and control; Early warning systems; Risk mapping; Natural hazards; Disaster management; Vulnerability assessment; Health risk; Debris flow and flood hazards; Case studies; Climate change; Safety and security; Evacuation simulation and design; Political and economic vulnerability.
Issues in Insurance and Risk Management: 2013 Edition
Language: en
Pages: 496
Authors: C. A. Brebbia
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2013-05-01 - Publisher: ScholarlyEditions

Issues in Insurance and Risk Management / 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Risk Management. The editors have built Issues in Insurance and Risk Management: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Risk Management in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Insurance and Risk Management: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis
Language: en
Pages: 328
Authors: Louis A. Cox
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-03-30 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on recent advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an easily accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Emphasizing topics not traditionally found in DA literature, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science and includes developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges, including online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to provide more-or-less plausible explanations for available data and recommended actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what to do when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. PhD, is Chief Sciences Officer of NextHealth Technologies, a Denver-based health care advanced analytics software company and President of Cox Associates, Inc., a Denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk assessment, risk analysis, causal modeling, and operations research. Dr. Cox is also Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at the University of Colorado at Denver, a member of the National Academy of Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal.
Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics
Language: en
Pages: 321
Authors: Michael Doumpos, Constantin Zopounidis, Evangelos Grigoroudis
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2016-07-12 - Publisher: Springer

This book provides a broad coverage of the recent advances in robustness analysis in decision aiding, optimization, and analytics. It offers a comprehensive illustration of the challenges that robustness raises in different operations research and management science (OR/MS) contexts and the methodologies proposed from multiple perspectives. Aside from covering recent methodological developments, this volume also features applications of robust techniques in engineering and management, thus illustrating the robustness issues raised in real-world problems and their resolution within advances in OR/MS methodologies. Robustness analysis seeks to address issues by promoting solutions, which are acceptable under a wide set of hypotheses, assumptions and estimates. In OR/MS, robustness has been mostly viewed in the context of optimization under uncertainty. Several scholars, however, have emphasized the multiple facets of robustness analysis in a broader OR/MS perspective that goes beyond the traditional framework, seeking to cover the decision support nature of OR/MS methodologies as well. As new challenges emerge in a “big-data'” era, where the information volume, speed of flow, and complexity increase rapidly, and analytics play a fundamental role for strategic and operational decision-making at a global level, robustness issues such as the ones covered in this book become more relevant than ever for providing sound decision support through more powerful analytic tools.
Security Risk Models for Cyber Insurance
Language: en
Pages: 172
Authors: David Rios Insua, Caroline Baylon, Jose Vila
Categories: Computers
Type: BOOK - Published: 2020-12-20 - Publisher: CRC Press

Tackling the cybersecurity challenge is a matter of survival for society at large. Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing in sophistication and magnitude—and in their destructive potential. New threats emerge regularly, the last few years having seen a ransomware boom and distributed denial-of-service attacks leveraging the Internet of Things. For organisations, the use of cybersecurity risk management is essential in order to manage these threats. Yet current frameworks have drawbacks which can lead to the suboptimal allocation of cybersecurity resources. Cyber insurance has been touted as part of the solution – based on the idea that insurers can incentivize companies to improve their cybersecurity by offering premium discounts – but cyber insurance levels remain limited. This is because companies have difficulty determining which cyber insurance products to purchase, and insurance companies struggle to accurately assess cyber risk and thus develop cyber insurance products. To deal with these challenges, this volume presents new models for cybersecurity risk management, partly based on the use of cyber insurance. It contains: A set of mathematical models for cybersecurity risk management, including (i) a model to assist companies in determining their optimal budget allocation between security products and cyber insurance and (ii) a model to assist insurers in designing cyber insurance products. The models use adversarial risk analysis to account for the behavior of threat actors (as well as the behavior of companies and insurers). To inform these models, we draw on psychological and behavioural economics studies of decision-making by individuals regarding cybersecurity and cyber insurance. We also draw on organizational decision-making studies involving cybersecurity and cyber insurance. Its theoretical and methodological findings will appeal to researchers across a wide range of cybersecurity-related disciplines including risk and decision analysis, analytics, technology management, actuarial sciences, behavioural sciences, and economics. The practical findings will help cybersecurity professionals and insurers enhance cybersecurity and cyber insurance, thus benefiting society as a whole. This book grew out of a two-year European Union-funded project under Horizons 2020, called CYBECO (Supporting Cyber Insurance from a Behavioral Choice Perspective).
Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications
Language: en
Pages: 680
Authors: Satyanshu K. Upadhyay, Umesh Singh, Dipak K. Dey, Appaia Loganathan
Categories: Mathematics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-05-21 - Publisher: CRC Press

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics. Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on a Bayesian methodology. It gives an overview of the area, presents theoretical insights, and emphasizes applications through motivating examples. This book reflects the diversity of Bayesian analysis, from novel Bayesian methodology, such as nonignorable response and factor analysis, to state-of-the-art applications in economics, astrophysics, biomedicine, oceanography, and other areas. It guides readers in using Bayesian techniques for a range of statistical analyses.